Avalanches pose a very real risk to people, infrastructure and ecosystems in mountainous regions. However, accurately predicting where and when they will occur remains a complex challenge. Triggering of an avalanche depends on numerous factors, such as terrain, weather conditions and snowpack characteristics.
To better understand these interactions and more accurately predict avalanche risk, Alexandre Langlois, a research professor in the Department of Applied Geomatics at the Université de Sherbrooke, and his team developed a platform to simulate snowpack stability in mountainous environments. Their work, carried out in Glacier National Park in western Canada and in the Chic-Chocs Wildlife Reserve in the Gaspé Peninsula, aimed to better understand how variations in the snowpack influence avalanche triggering.
Using techniques including remote sensing, the research team measured and modelled snowpack variability with the help of predictive models based on microtopographic indicators—that is, fine-scale terrain features that influence snow accumulation and stability. This approach led to the production of high-resolution maps to identify more precisely the areas where the risk of avalanches is highest.
Further modelling of snowpack evolution between 1982 and 2021 allowed the research team to assess the effects of climate change on snow in mountainous regions. The results revealed, among other things, an increase in rain-on-snow events, which can rapidly and suddenly increase the weight of the snow. The team also developed virtual weather stations adapted to the local topography, which improves estimates of snow water equivalent and enables more accurate avalanche forecasts.
Ultimately, this new knowledge will help guide decisions regarding the development of infrastructure in northern mountainous regions to support land-use planning and protect the people who live there. And Alexandre Langlois’s team is already working on it!
References
- Meloche, F., Bobillier, G., Guillet, L., Gauthier, F., Langlois, A. And Gaume, J. (2025). Modeling crack arrest in snow slab avalanches – Towards estimating avalanche release sizes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 130(12), e2025JF008470. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JF008470
- Billecocq, P., Langlois, A. et Montpetit, B. (2023). Subgridding high resolution numerical weather forecast in the Canadian Selkirk range for local snow modelling in a remote sensing perspective. The Cryosphere, 18(6), 2765-2782. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2765-2024
- Madore, J.-B., Fierz, C. et Langlois, A. (2022). Investigation into percolation and liquid water content in a multi-layered snow model for wet snow instabilities in Glacier National Park, Canada. Frontiers in Earth Science, section Cryospheric Sciences, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.898980